I am a Gentile who believes strongly that the state of Israel has a right to exist in peace and security as a Jewish homeland and refuge. The attacks by Hamas terrorists on October 7 horrified me, even more so as the gruesome details of savagery and inhumanity came out. And I have strongly supported the right of Israel to respond militarily, but as the war enters its seventh month, I think it’s time to rethink Israel’s strategy.
The stated aim of the Israeli government is to completely eradicate Hamas, and yet, after seven months of intense fighting and bombardment, Hamas remains a formidable foe. Why is that? Aside from the obvious difficulties of fighting an entrenched and well armed foe that has had years to prepare for this conflict, there is also the question of whether Hamas and the Palestinians are separable. Most Western leaders and commentators have claimed that Hamas is not the Palestinians over these past seven months, and yet there is compelling evidence that is wrong. Of course, if Hamas and the Palestinians are inseparable, any solution to the thus far intractable challenges of co-existence between the Palestinians and the Israelis becomes much, much more difficult to achieve. It also removes the fig leaf Western politicians have hidden behind responding to the war where they criticize Hamas but oppose Israel’s response because it is hurting the “innocent” Palestinians.
It’s undeniable that Hamas fighters are Palestinians and poll and after poll of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank show considerable majority support for Hamas even after seven months of bombardment and fighting laid waste to much of Gaza. At the same time, world public opinion has turned, or is turning, against Israel, moving it towards the status of a pariah state. In fact, I suspect this is all playing out almost exactly as Hamas planned with its ultimate goal to completely destroy the State of Israel and murder its people.
Israel’s government, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has made things much worse with its enabling financial support for Hamas, its support of the settler movement on the West Bank, its complete lack of preparedness for the attacks on October 7, its implacable opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state and its divisive domestic policies. In fact, there’s growing suspicion the war is being prolonged to help the government politically, and certainly its recent decision to bomb the Iranian consulate in Damascus has only increased the vulnerability of Israel with the real possibility of a second war, this one on its northern frontier. The likelihood of that increased considerably yesterday as Iran fired three hundred missiles and drones at Israel.
Whether the continuation and escalation of the war is part of a cynical political maneuver, or whether it simply shows a lack of strategic wisdom and imagination, the facts on the ground now dictate a complete re-think of Israel’s strategy and approach.
It is difficult to accurately assess Israel’s success in the war but recent announcements it is having to re-fight battles in areas thought to have been successfully pacified suggest it is becoming mired in the kind of quagmire that defeated the United States in Vietnam and, effectively, in Iraq and Afghanistan. Whether or not the number of Palestinian casualties is correct, and they are most likely deliberate over estimations by Hamas authorities, the daily images of women and children being killed can only strengthen the position of Israel’s enemies and move toward the point where the stakes are genuinely existential for Israel.
I do not know what a new strategy should look like, but the first step must be a ceasefire with the release of any surviving hostages. It should be followed by a process involving the key players in the international and regional communities with the goal of making the ceasefire permanent along with a real path to Palestinian statehood in the West Bank and Gaza. There is no other realistic alternative and right wing Israelis who believe they can prevail and somehow push the Palestinians out of all of historic Palestine or, worse, kill them all must be marginalized if only for the sake the survival of Israel.
There are several reasons to stop the war now including, of course, ending the suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza and freeing the hostages, but perhaps the most compelling is that it’s in Israel’s strategic interest to do so.
The kidnappers and murderers from October 7 should still be hunted down just as the terrorists at the Munich Olympics were, but stopping the daily bombardments of Palestinian civilians will allow Israel to move forward to create and strengthen its alliances with neighbouring Arab nations. It shouldn’t be lost on anyone that at least one of those nations, Jordan, helped Israel repel the Iranian drone and rocket attacks last weekend.
I can’t fully appreciate the anger and fear Israelis must feel after the October 7 attack but perhaps that’s where friends come in, outsiders who are more dispassionate and better able to view the strategic landscape free from those emotions. I consider myself a friend of Israel, and my advice is offered in that spirit and, most of all, motivated by what I believe to be in its long-term interest.
Just sayin
GH
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