Yesterday, Americans re-elected Donald Trump to be their President. This, despite his thirty four felony convictions, his being found liable for sexual assault, his pending trials for attempting to overthrow the 2020 election and taking secret government documents, his role in the January 6 insurrection, and his campaign of darkness, chaos, revenge and violence. In fact, they not only re-elected him, they gave him a majority of the popular vote and a commanding lead in the Electoral College count. And while I say “despite”, I think it worth acknowledging that millions of Americans voted for him not “despite” these things, but because of them.
For many of us who grew up under the unbrella of the post Second World War consensus led by the United States, this seems incomprehensible and yet, when you dig deeper, is it really? America has a long history of isolationism, racism and even flirting with fascism but, somehow, has always managed to hold those forces at bay. Winston Churchill famously said “Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else” and there was a kind of comfort in that thought as history showed time and again it to be true. Until now perhaps.
So, why have Americans so completely upended their, and likely the world’s order, in this election? The coming weeks and months will see scholars parsing the election results and offering their views on what happened. They will show that this or that issue, this or that choice or word, had some effect on the margins, that certain big issues like the economy weighed heavily on the outcome but few of them will give us a really satisfying result. I’m no expert, but I have my own theories.
What has happened in America is neither unique nor particularly mysterious. We have been witnessing serious internal challenges to the western dominated international order since at least the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom when what seemed manifestly against the interests of the vast majority of its citizens was, never-the-less, supported by a majority of them. This has been followed by the rise of extreme right wing parties across Europe, including in countries long considered the very model of moderation. In Sweden, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, parties rooted in the notion of “blood and soil” have been on the rise. That America has now joined this group should surprise no one although, given its prominence in the western democratic alliances, its shift will have an outsized effect upon us all.
And so I return to the question of “why?”. Of course there are local, grievances and issues and they drive some votes some of the time but I also believe they only gain traction against the backdrop of other, nation wide feelings and grievances. I believe there are three such areas in western liberal societies: the economy; immigration and the attempt to reshape some of the most fundamental beliefs of those societies to achieve a kind of post modern nation.
On the surface, the American economy should be the last thing on Americans list of concerns. By almost any standard, it’s humming with low unemployment, good wage growth, low inflation and year over year gains in GDP. Despite all this, many, if not most, Americans are still suffering from “sticker shock” which is the result of the COVID induced spike in inflation causing everything to be much more expensive than it was even a few years ago. And while on the topic of COVID, although I don’t list it as a major factor in the election outcomes, it was none the less, a profound shock to all societies, including the United States, a shock that seriously undermined peoples’ view of who they were and what their rights were. And that shock certainly caused further fragmenting in society.
The one issue that is consistent across all the nations experiencing radical political change is immigration. Whether it’s because of political instability, climate change or something else, vast numbers of people have moved from the relatively undeveloped global south to the more affluent and stable north and west. And in America this is a particularly fraught issue as millions of undocumented immigrants have flowed across its southern border. Aside from the most obvious effects of this such as homeless encampments and other types of disorder, it also feeds into what is known as “the great replacement theory” where the current inhabitants of America fear their way of life and their values will be replaced by immigrants from countries with very different historical experiences or values. And this is not just a fear in America. It is acutely so in parts of Europe that have experienced mass immigration over the last few decades and, even in Canada, where the fantasy of an harmonious multi cultural society is challenged by shocking outbursts of anti semitism and homophobia, often at the hands of relatively recent immigrants from countries and societies with cultural and religious views completely at odds with core Canadian values. Instead of dismissing this fear out of hand, it deserves a closer and more sympthetic hearing than it usually gets. In fact, and this is heresy in countries like Canada, mixing such diverse people and expecting a benign outcome may not be possible. That doesn’t mean ending immigration but it may mean being much more selective about who can joint these national families.
The third issue is the hardest to pin down but likely the one to spark the most intense debate: trying to reshape people and societies into a form that is radically different from what is core to their historical being. Whether it involves the rights of gays and lesbians or transexuals, what is acceptable in the public discourse, particularly between men and women, what place religion should have in shaping a society, what values should be the bedrock of a community and how they relate to historical values and, finally, what we should honour and respect in our past. It’s no exaggeration to say there has been a deliberate and aggressive attempt to reshape many of these by, for lack of a better word, “elites”, whether academic, political or economic and, not surprisingly, that has led to resentment amongst many people and political pushback. At the least, this needs to be dialed down and we need to find a way to better accommodate the competing voices.
And so here we are on the verge of another Trump presidency. I have no idea whether it will be as terrible as some are predicting but I suspect we’ll emerge whole on the other side, perhaps a bit chastened and that might be a good thing.
Just sayin
GH
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