Donald Trump: Time to Confront the Unthinkable

Several weeks ago I published a blog in which I said I was beginning to feel like The Netherlands in 1938. Some of you suggested I was being alarmist and paranoid. I wish you’d been right.

The latest information from the discussions between the Prime Minister and the President suggest several alarming things for Canadian sovereignty. Most significant is the American view that the treaties establishing the border between Canada and the United States can be easily withdrawn from or broken. This in the context of Donald Trump referring to the border as an “imaginary line” that should be erased and Elon Musk saying “Canada isn’t a real country”. Several of Donald Trump’s advisers are now being quoted as saying the border should be “redrawn”.

These comments have been viewed as either a joke or as raising the possibility of an American takeover of all of Canada which would require an enormous American military commitment, and that doesn’t even account for the continuing costs of occupation. That’s provided some comfort to Canada. But what if the threat is less ambitious but every bit as deadly to the continuation of the Canadian state? What if a unilateral re-drawing of the border by the Americans severed Canada from some of its most important territory? For example, what if the Americans decided they no longer wanted to share the Great Lakes? And while at it, what about the St. Lawrence Seaway? Or what if America decided it needed a contiguous land connection to Alaska? Or wanted complete control over the Columbia River? And then there’s the arctic. America has never recognized the Northwest Passage as Canadian water. This, despite it being surrounded on all sides by Canadian land. What if America decided to unilaterally establish a military base up there, on Canadian land, from which it could look across the Arctic Ocean at its new ally, Russia?

Alarmist? Paranoid? After the last few weeks? Actually, this is right out of the Russian playbook. We are all familiar with Russia’s overt aggression against Ukraine since 2014 when it annexed Crimea, but we should also remember it has being trying to chip away at Ukraine for years, not to mention the other states on its periphery where it has fomented discontent and uprisings before intervening directly. Oh, and how many times have we heard Russians saying “Ukraine is not a real country”?

It’s unclear whether Donald Trump is in thrall to Russia for whatever reason or whether he just admires the kind of thuggery Vladimir Putin practises at home and abroad. Either way, the Russian model might look very attractive to Trump when he looks at Canada.

Canada, after nearly two centuries of sitting safely behind three oceans and next door to a friendly ally, is now more akin to 1930’s Poland, stranded between Russia and Nazi Germany. Except, in Canada’s case, there is no one to come to our rescue. Although millions of Canadians crossed the Atlantic to defeat fascism and defend democracy in Europe in two world wars, it is unlikely any European nation will go to war with the United States to defend Canada’s sovereignty, especially as the Russian bear threatens Europe from the east. In other words, we’re going have to handle this one on our own.

Before anyone panics it’s worth noting what Canada has available to it. It has the seventh largest economy in the world; a population of forty two million people which is highly educated and skilled; access to vast resources including minerals and oil; and is one of the breadbaskets of the world. Canada also has an impressive military history although that capability has been degraded through the neglect of Liberal and Conservative governments going back generations. And, despite any internal differences, I think it’s clear now, if it wasn’t before, Canadians are fiercely loyal to their country.

I am certainly no military expert so I offer the next few thoughts with that qualification. It strikes me as good strategy to develop our military capabilities so we can defend against isolated incursions and so that the cost of a larger invasion to an invading power is too great for it to bear. From my limited reading on the issue, I expect we need to rapidly and effectively spend hundreds of billions of dollars enhancing our defence capabilites, including a massive campaign to recruit and train new personnel. We should reexamine the contract with Lockheed Martin for the purchase of over seventy billion dollars worth of F35 fighter jets. Apparently, even when those jets are fully in possession of the Canadian Airforce, the Americans will retain the technical ability to disable them. For all the obvious reasons, this is clearly unacceptable and, if that vulnerability cannot be eliminated, the contract should be canceled and replaced with one with a European aerospace manufacturer. Canada should also proceed rapidly to replace its submarine fleet, avoiding American arms companies, and sourcing them from Europe or Asia. And, while on the subject of submarines, perhaps we should also be purchasing some that are capable of carrying and firing nuclear armed missiles. Those of you who have known me for a long time will realize how difficult it is for me to even contemplate a nuclear armed Canada but the blinkers are off and we have to create deterence that is real and effective, even to the most powerful nations in the world. Everthing must be on the table.

Aside from a military buildup, Canada must strengthen its economic position by diversifying its trading partners and making internal changes that make doing business easier in Canada. So far, the early signals on this front are good and, while it would have been good had we embarked on this path years ago, better late than never. We also must continue communicating with Americans, making the point over and over again, Trump’s policies towards Canada are, in the words of the Prime Minister and The Wall Street Journal, dumb.

Keep calm and carry on Canada.

Just sayin

GH

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Appeasement: Here We Go Again (The Betrayal of Ukraine)

As I approach my 76th birthday I find it hard to believe I’m witnessing a rebirth of the ancient hatreds and betrayals that poisoned the first half of the Twentieth Century. For my generation at least, the phrase “never again” was unquestionable. And yet, here we are.

Please bear with me for a couple of paragraphs as I detail a bit of history for those who may have forgotten, and for those who never knew. The Nazi’s came to power in Germany in 1933 where they remained until Germany’s defeat at the end of the Second World War in 1945. From their election in 1933 it was clear to anyone taking notice they intended to not only undo the results of the First World War but to go further, creating a German Nazi empire that covered much, if not all, of Europe. They began by re-arming the Rhineland in direct contravention of the Treaty of Versaille and, when that provoked no armed opposition, proceeded to annex Austria. Their next target was the Sudetenland which was part of Czechoslovakia and had a large ethnic and German speaking population. In response to this, two conferences were held to attempt to find a peaceful solution. The best known of these was the Munich Conference in 1938, attended by Germany, France, Great Britain and Italy. Even though it was the country whose territory was being bargained over, Czechoslovakia was not invited, and wasn’t a party to, the final “Munich Agreement”. It is this agreement that Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain of Britain brought home, declaring “Peace for Our Time”. His name is forever attached to the disgraceful policy of appeasement although, to be fair, that policy was pursued by Britain from 1933 onward, including under his predecessor, Stanley Baldwin. The one steadfast opponent of appeasement was Winston Churchill.

It took little time for the Germans to break their agreement at Munich, occupying the rest of Czechoslovakia, and then moving to threaten Poland. Britain and France signed mutual protection treaties with Poland and, when Germany launched its invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939, both countries declared war on Germany, igniting the Second World War. By the time it was over in 1945 approximately 75 million people had died and much of Europe and significant parts of Asia lay in ruins. Since then, “appeasement” has rightly been seen as naive at best and tragically wrong headed at worst.

Three years ago Vladimir Putin launched a war of aggression against Ukraine, the largest European country by land mass, with a population of almost 40 million people. His goal was to overthrow the democratically elected government and either install a puppet regime loyal to Moscow, or simply wipe Ukraine off the map and absorb it into Russia. Russia and much of the rest of the world expected the war to be over in days with the much larger Russian military overwhelming the Ukrainians. They were wrong, spectacularly so, as the Ukrainians fought the Russians to a standstill, and then forced them to retreat back to territory they had occupied earlier and to Russia. Since then, the war has ground on mercilessly and, of late, Russia seems to be making small, incremental gains although while experiencing terrible losses.

Under the leadership of President Biden, NATO countries provided aid to Ukraine, most of it military, but some humanitarian. In total the United States has provided somewhere between $120 and $175 billion of this aid, while the rest of NATO, including Canada, has provided up to $100 billion. Much of the aid was used to purchase military equipment from American arms manufacturers, providing a signficant economic boost to the American economy.

And then Donald Trump came back into power, first claiming he would end the war even before he took office and, when that didn’t happen, applying pressure on Ukraine to capitulate to Russia’s demands. Meetings between America and Russia were held in Saudi Arabia to attempt a settlement and, despite it having lost tens of thousands of its citizens and significant parts of its territory, Ukraine was not invited. Nor were the other NATO allies. Sound familiar? It should. This is what happened at Munich in 1938 when Czechoslovakia was carved up by the “great powers” leading inevitably to the Second World War. Actually, in some ways, this current betrayal is worse as Donald Trump and his minions demonize President Zelensky of Ukraine and claim, despite all evidence to the contrary, Ukraine started the war.

And now, in what has to be one of the most appalling grabs in history, the American government is demanding that Ukraine sign over fifty percent of all profits from the development and sale of many of its most precious natural resources as repayment for the American funding received so far. The “ask” in this case is something of the order of $500 billion dollars. In other words, even if Ukraine survives as an independent nation, it would be permanently assigned to poverty and failure. I know we are long past the “have you no shame sir” moment with Donald Trump. But really… The comparable expectation after the Second World War would have been that America and the rest of the allies against Nazi Germany would have received payments from France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Norway and all the other countries that were liberated after Germany’s defeat.

Neither America nor its NATO allies fund Ukraine out of the goodness of their hearts. Although we instinctively want to aid democratic allies, the reality of that aid is more transactional. Ukraine is the bulwark against Russian expansionism. If it falls it will only be a matter of time before the Baltic states are being threatened and, lest anyone thinks Article 5 of the NATO charter will deter Putin, think again after Donald Trump has made it so plainly clear America cannot be counted on to help defend its NATO allies. The Ukrainians have paid with their lives, their lands and their treasury so the rest of us don’t have to. And now America is on the verge of abandoning them or, perhaps worse, forcing them into a humiliating peace deal that will enrich America and permanently weaken and impoverish Ukraine.

Yesterday at the United Nations America joined Russia, North Korea and Iran voting against a European resolution calling for an end to the war and clearly placing responsibility for it upon Russia. The resolution still passed but it’s clear America is no longer an ally we can count upon. The stench of betrayal and opportunism coming out of Washington is almost unbearable, but I suppose not surprising. Although I don’t pretend to understand Donald Trump, I suspect he thinks he can win a Nobel Peace Prize by ending the war on virtually any terms. History tells us otherwise. He will be remembered in the same company as all the petty despots who have soiled human history as they destroyed free peoples’ dreams and hopes. So much for “Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness”.

Just sayin

GH

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Letter to My American Friends and Family

Dear American Friends and Family,

Two months ago then President Elect, Donald Trump, began trolling Canada, suggesting it should be absorbed into the United States. He has continued this since taking office as President on January 20. This has come as a shock to Canadians who find it deeply offensive. That shock is now being replaced with anger.

My first encounters with America happened when, as a boy, my family would drive to Montana. Living in southern Alberta, Montana was just down the road. Although I don’t remember much of those trips except some magnificient scenery and staying in motels by rivers, motels I at the time considered quite luxurious, those trips left a lasting impression of friendly people, almost like us, and a warm and welcoming place.

In the many years since I have travelled extensively across America, marvelling at its vitality, its optimism, its energy. I have enjoyed its great cities and charming towns: New York, Chicago, Boston, Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, New Orleans, Phoenix, Miami, Washington, Charleston, Savannah, Ashland, Vicksburg, Natchez, Bellingham…the list goes on and on. So many good memories of great places, fun times and friendly people. I also lived and worked in Windsor/Detroit where, even after the then recent devastation of the race riots, people were gracious and friendly. I have never felt unwelcome or, for that matter, in any danger (okay there was an attempted gun holdup in LA and a switch blade in San Francisco…but I survived, and the police were great). I’ve even been in love down there a couple of times. So perhaps you’ll understand why your President’s behaviour now feels like such a betrayal to me and to many other Canadians like me.

A bit of history: English speaking Canada was mostly founded by tens of thousands of Americans who fled the Thirteen Colonies because they did not support the American Revolution. In other words, they did not want to be part of the United States of America. Their descendents still play a significant role in Canada. They joined the French Canadians who have been fighting to maintain their language and culture in a sea of English speakers for centuries. There were some conflicts across our shared border in the years following, but the last significant military conflict was in the War of 1812 which ended in 1814.

So, for over two hundred years, we have lived side by side, sharing the longest undefended land border between two sovereign nations in the world. As Canadians we have tried to be good neighbours, supporting America when it needed our help, and fighting side by side in wars against Fascism, Communism and, recently, Islamic fundamentalism. On the whole we’ve kept our side of the yard in pretty good shape and, in the last sixty years, have moved our economy closer to yours. We regret that now .

I know Americans are taught from a young age their country is the best country in the world…ever. And, because of that, I understand your puzzlement when Canada says “no thank you” when asked to become the 51st state. But you see, we Canadians love our country too; just as much as you love America. And, from our perspective, Canada is the best country in the world. Not the most powerful or the richest, but one that reflects the things we care about. Despite our many similarities, there are significant differences between Canadians and Americans. That doesn’t mean one is better than the other, just that they’re different.

In Canada we believe governments have a more robust role to play in our lives, ensuring more equitable distribution of our wealth, and providing a larger social safety net. Ours is a more communitarian society where we look out for each other and where we support programs to lift our fellow citizens out of poverty.We believe health care is a right for all Canadians irrespective of their economic status. Some of this is the legacy of our ancestors building a nation in such a vast space, a space that, in some areas, is amongst the most inhospitable territory in the world.

While America’s motto is “Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness”, Canada’s is “Peace, Order and Good Government”. Amongst other things, that means Canadians do not place the same value on rugged individualism that Americans do and that, ultimately, leads to a very different society. Oh, and we don’t believe private individuals should have a right to own guns. I know some of this is anathema to Americans but it has never stopped us from being good neighbours or of valuing the many good things America represents. So you see, we have chosen a different path over the past two centuries. Not better, just different.

I am well past the age when I can man the barricades but what I can do is state as clearly as possible the simple fact that Canadians will never voluntarily become part of America. And if that means enduring economic hardship over the next few years, so be it. Canadians have a reputation for being quiet and polite (except when it comes to hockey) but that shouldn’t ever be mistaken for weakness. We have been confronted by threats and hardship before, and we’ve always endured as we will again, emerging with different trading partners and allies. But what a shame to toss away two hundred years of friendship.

Geoff Holter (Vancouver)

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Trump vs. Canada: Round One

On February 1, Donald Trump signed an Executive Order authorizing 25% tariffs on all Canadian exports to the United States, except fuel, effective Tuesday, February 4. It also authorized 25% tariffs on Mexico. The “carve out” for fuel was only partial, with a ten percent tariff applied, presumably to lessen the impact on fuel prices in the United States. As recently as Thursday most commentators and advisors had been reassuring Canadians the tariffs wouldn’t happen or, if they did, would be much more selective and smaller. This, despite very clear messaging from Trump the tariffs were coming at the level implemented. The Executive Order also stated that if Canada or Mexico retaliates with their own tariffs the United States may increase the level of these tariffs.

The Government of Canada responded with 25% tariffs on a range of American products imported into Canada, as well as announcing additional tariffs on a much larger group of products effective in twenty one days.

On February 3, Trump announced a thirty day “pause” in the tariffs following conversations with Prime Minister Trudeau. This followed a similar deal with Mexico announced earlier in the day. Both these postponements were linked to “progress” in enhancing security at the U.S./Mexico/Canada border. In Canada’s case, it seems to be recognition of the border security initiatives the Canadian government announced last year, along with the appointment of a “Fentanyl Czar” and a commitment to increased cooperation between the two countries combatting drug smuggling at the northern border. How these tiny additions to the 2024 border security package would justify the threat and then removal of the nuclear option of a trade war remains a mystery and it’s hard not to feel Canada gave very little to achieve the pause. That said, Trump’s spokesperson, as well as the herd of devoted Trump supporters in the media, are trumpeting it as another great win for the President (right after beating up on little Colombia). Whatever I might think of that, it makes little sense to poke the bear at this point.

Now the conversation has turned to: “why are they doing this to us?”. Certainly, nothing in Trump’s statements justifies this level of action against Canada. The claims it is justified by the fentanyl epidemic in America, or the flow of undocumented immigrants into that country, simply don’t hold up when the data for Canada is consulted. Only a tiny percentage of fentanyl and undocumented immigrants come across the Canadian border, not to mention the flow in the other direction of undocumented immigrants, drugs and guns into Canada.

Trump also cites the trade imbalance between the two countries as part of his claim Canada is ripping off America. But, again, the data simply doesn’t support that. First, the numbers he quotes are wildly inconsistent with the facts even as documented by the United States government itself and, second, that doesn’t take any account for America’s huge surplus in services imported by Canada. Also, much of the disparity in goods is the result of America’s purchase of oil from Canada, oil it purchases at a significant discount by the way and, to be clear, America is not purchasing this oil because it wants to help Canada. It’s purchasing it because it makes good economic sense for America. If it wants to stop, it can and Canada will sell it elsewhere.

Some are now claiming America’s tariffs are designed to precipitate an early re-negotiation of the U.S./Canada/Mexico free trade agreement, although it’s not at all clear how that works. Why, if that is the goal, wouldn’t America simply have advised Canada and Mexico it wants to re-open the treaty early, allowing them to respond, perhaps positively, without the enormous disruption of a trade war? Also, with these actions, America is giving a clear signal to the world its signature on an agreement is worthless. What’s the point of negotiating an agreement with Donald Trump’s America if you don’t believe it will be honoured?

As someone who knows a fair bit about negotiations, I’m pretty sure this has little if anything to do with some kind of grand American negotiation strategy. It just doesn’t fit. At a minimum in any negotiation you want your opposite to have a good understanding of your objectives in the negotiations. Otherwise there is absolutely no path forward. And at this point Canadians are left to speculate on what the Americans want with almost no clarity coming from the other side.

From the day he won the election, Donald Trump has been saying he would like Canada to become the 51st state of the United States. I’m sure he does although I’m equally sure he hasn’t thought through the implications both for America and Canada, relying instead on some simplistic notion of “Manifest Destiny” or, more likely, fantasies of unlimited resources and water up north.

Canadians are experiencing a whole range of emotions in response to Trump’s aggression although I think anger, tinged with disappointment, has now become dominant. In one form or another, Canada has had a free trade agreement with the United States since the 1960’s. I remember the debates on the wisdom of linking ourselves so closely to the behemoth to our south; the concerns about Canadian sovereignty, Canadian culture, and Canadian values. But the first sixty years seemed to go pretty well, although the addition of Mexico in the 1990’s introduced new challenges and complexities for both Canada and the United States, and likely lit the spark that flared into American and, to some extent, Canadian opposition to free trade. But it is undeniable, although many try, that the North American free trade agreements led to economic growth and prosperity in all three countries. And for Canada at least, the fears about American hegemony faded until they were almost invisible.

It’s no exaggeration to say America and Canada have more in common than any other two sovereign nations in the world. And that commonality has lured Canadians into a dangerous disregard for the ultimate rules of relations between nations. First Lord Palmerston, and then Charles DeGaul, were clear that nations don’t have friends, just interests, and that, to the extent friendship does exist between two nations, it is never eternal. Because of the similarities between our two populations, our proximity, and the decades of peaceful, successful, co-dependence it’s not surprising Canadians lapsed into a rose tinted view of the relationship, something, by the way, the Americans never really did. At best, Canada was an afterthought, if any thought at all, a gentle, friendly and harmless giant to the north, one that could easily be dismissed with a stereotype of being the nice, but boring, cousin. The truth is Americans have never appreciated what an enormous advantage it was to have Canada on its northern border. Canada: safe, reliable and peaceful.

And if we needed any proof, the reactions south of the border to Trump’s outrageous provocations and insults provide it. Where are our American friends? The silence is deafening. Almost no American political leader (with the exception of the Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer) has voiced outrage over Trump’s behaviour and proposals. That’s also true for American columnists even in the most liberal American papers. Their criticism is almost exclusively focused on any potential damage to the United States of a resulting trade war. Not a word of solidarity with their Canadian friends, neighbours and cousins. So, Canada, it’s time to wake up.

No one is going to come to our rescue. Not the British Empire this time. Not our Commonwealth buddies. And certainly not NATO tip toeing around the vulgarian Trump. Yes, there will be statements. You know the kind: expressing concern, calling for dialogue, offering support for a rules based international order. And even these will tread oh so carefully around the fragile ego in the White House.

So, what should Canada do? For starters understand what we are dealing with. All efforts to find a reasonable, rational approach by America will fail. We are facing an insecure narcissist whose very existence depends upon endless validation and praise. Some may remember, shortly after Trump was elected, he was asked about Canada. He smiled and said something to the effect “we’re going to have some fun with Canada”. Most ignored it, but here we are. So, to be clear, there is no straight line forward. It’s not about border security; or trade imbalances; or defence spending; or claims American banks aren’t allowed to operate in Canada; or even about Canada becoming America’s fifty first state, and any effort to address any of these, whether through correcting misinformation or taking steps to seemingly address his imagined grievances will simply lead to new complaints; new lies and new exaggerations. As long as we play that game, we lose.

And the thirty day “reprieve” on tariffs is just that, a reprieve, leaving the threat ready to be resurrected as often as Trump wants. In other words, his “fun” with Canada could find us in a perpetual national crisis with each new threat causing us to ramp up our outrage and run frantically for cover. Eventually we’ll be exhausted and may even end up accepting things we should never accept.

There is a better way. It needs to be quietly and carefully developed and implemented. It may include playing for a bit of time to allow us to be better prepared to face each outrage, in which case the thirty day reprieve may be extended by months although most likely not years, but it also includes realizing the time will come when we must call his bluff. And, as any good negotiator knows, you don’t call a bluff unless you are ready to live with the worst possible outcome.

There’s another piece that no one is talking about: increasing spending on defence. Thus far, any discussion of this is around meeting the minimum NATO expectations and perhaps molifying Trump by doing so. But there’s a much more compelling reason for massively increasing Canada’s spending on defence: the actual military defence of our homeland. We have long realized there was a threat of some territorial dispute with a revanchist Russia, or China interested in the Northwest Passage. Well, now it’s time to add a new possible adversary and, as unthinkable as this would have been even a few weeks ago, America is on that list. As appalling as it is to acknowledge, it is not out of the question Donald Trump’s America could launch a military challenge to Canada’s sovereignty and, while even at the best of times it would be a David and Goliath contest, Canada must be prepared to respond militarily if necessary. That requires massive increases in the Defence budget and a refocussing Canada’s spending priorities. And it needs to happen quickly.

Mine is the last generation with any real connection to the Second World War. Prior to that war Canada was a largely rural country with a population of about ten million. Yet when challenged those people, my parents generation, rose and created one of the mightest militaries in the world, contributing greatly to the defeat of fascism and the victory of democracy.

They did it then. We can do it now.

Just sayin

GH

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“The Darkest Night Before the Dawn”

Or is it?

Day five of the second Presidency of Donald Trump and, as intended, we are being overwhelmed by an unprecedented assault on the democratic norms and traditions that have underpinned the stability and success of America and its allies. Those who claimed Trump’s second term would be more moderate than his statements while out of office and campaigning now seem hopelessly naive. Theirs’, the stubborn optimism against all evidence to the contrary and finally crashing against the reality of elevating a vindictive, cruel narcissist to the most powerful position in the world.

It’s hard to focus on any one violation of democratic and legal norms amidst the tsunami of outrages, all swathed in vulgarity, but perhaps the most telling is the clear signal that America is no longer a nation of laws. His sweeping pardons and commutations of the January 6th insurrectionists, as well as the daily drip of further pardons of convicted criminals, shows there are few if any limits that will constrain him in his exercise of Executive power insulated by the U.S. Supreme Court’s expansion of Presidential immunity. How ironic that the great republic, founded in rebellion against the tyranny of monarchs, has turned back upon itself and, in one cataclysmic convulsion, has elevated a President who claims monarchial powers, with no respect for democratic norms or limits, and who will now seek to permanently change the political and civic order to one more in common with autocracy and oligarchy then liberal democracy.

As Canadians we have front row seats to the drama unfolding next store. Not just front row seats but, for reasons that remain unclear, we have become one of Donald Trump’s favourite whipping boys as he toys with us with repeated threats to destroy the Canadian economy while insulting the very idea of Canada or being a Canadian. And our political leaders aren’t helping as they rise to his bait, apparently unable to resist microphones where conflicting and unhelpful messages are offered, not to mention the disgraceful and disloyal statements of the Premier of Alberta that so clearly undermine the interests of this country, statements that will not soon be forgotten.

I’ve said this before, but it’s worth repeating: each time Canadian leaders respond to Trump’s provocations they guarantee they will continue and escalate. Last week, it was his address to the World Economic Forum in Davos where he continued his campaign against Canada, spewing a fire hose of untruths about our trading relationship with America. And right on cue, Canadian politicians were responding, hinting at all sorts of retribution if his threatened tariffs are implemented. I spent the better part of half a century negotating contracts and, for those who believe Donald Trump is a master negotiator, he is not. He is entirely predictable, easily provoked, with a playbook that takes little sophistication to understand. Years ago, I faced a representative of the B.C. government in repeated negotiations. He was a prominent lawyer and a very good negotiator. Whenever there was any suggestion we would do something in response to the government’s positions, he would simply reply: “you will do what you will do”, leaving unsaid what would then happen. The point being, we can’t ultimately control what the opposite party will do but we can certainly prepare for it and keep them guessing. And that’s what Canada should be doing at this time, instead of politicians at all levels rushing around like chickens with their heads cut off after each “new” outrage. This is the response he wants and it undermines what Canada will ultimately do. Keep them guessing.

Aside from the side show of U.S./Canada relations, there is the bigger question of how Americans should respond to Trump’s assaults on some of the most cherished American values and beliefs. Thus far, it has mostly been silence although there are a couple of green shoots of resistance, with a federal court judge at least temporarily blocking Trump’s move to end birthright citizenship and, perhaps most poignantly, the words of the Episcopal Bishop of Washington, Mariann Budde, who, speaking from the Canterbury pulpit in the National Cathedral, asked President Trump to show mercy to immigrants and members of the LGBTQ community. Of course her appeal was met by stony glares from the President and his wife, followed by demands for an apology but, never the less, it was an inspirational moment showcasing how people must now speak truth to power.

I suspect most liberal Americans are hiding behind the belief that “this too shall pass”. But will it? The dominant American myth for the latter part of the twentieth century was that “the Arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice”, this spoken so movingly by the late Martin Luther King, but there is reason now to question whether that is the case, or whether the eighty years of progress since the Second World War is only an exception in the long and dark history of mankind. And I really don’t know the answer to this question although I certainly hope the first green shoots will lead to a mighty forest and a counter revolution.

Just sayin

GH

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Adieu Justin. Now What?

After a seemingly endless walk in the snow, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has bowed to the inevitable and announced his resignation. The timing couldn’t be worse as he emulates President Biden holding on until the last possible moment as the Canadian ship of state drifts inexorably towards the iceburg of Donald Trump’s America. While it’s not surprising he would hold on until the last possible second, even by those standards these past three weeks have shown a breathtaking lack of concern for Canada as he spent his time on a skiing vacation while “reflecting” on his future. As has always been the case, it’s all about him.

Although it has a habit of making chumps of us all, I predict history will not be kind to Justin Trudeau, and not just because of his leave taking. The country he bequeathes to his successor is less united, less capable of facing external challenges and less prosperous than the one he inherited. In fairness, there are accomplishments that are to his credit. Navigating through the first Trump Presidency and rescuing the North American Free Trade Agreement is certainly one of them, as is relatively good management of Canada’s response to COVID 19. Also, legislative changes to the Child Tax Credit have significantly reduced child poverty in Canada. Ironically, a fourth accomplishment that will serve Canada well, particularly in a world where America cannot be trusted as a reliable partner, is the purchase and completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline which allows much greater access to Asian markets for Canadian oil exports and lessens the stranglehold America had over Canadian oil. I say “ironically” because this action infuriated his enviromentalist supporters and put a significant dent in his claim to priorize the fight against climate change.

But against these accomplishments there is a litanty of failures, the first of which has to be the relentless undermining of Canadians’ sense of our history and our place in the world; an undermining that begins with his pronouncement there is no central Canadian identity, that Canada is a “post national country”, whatever that means, and that our history is at best irrelevant and, more often, shameful. And we see the results every day as signifiers of the struggles of our ancestors are devalued, destroyed or removed.

For Justin Trudeau, reconciliation with the natives who inhabited what is now Canada before the arrival of Europeans and Asians is the paramount objective, and every government action has to be measured against it. This has led us to place the interests of a tiny minority of Canadians above those of everyone else, and where that minority is encouraged to believe their ancestors lived in a prelapsarian paradise, at one with their neighours and the natural world around them, when the reality was quite different. The lives of native Canadians prior to the arrival of European settlers were brutish, primitive and short, and any other narrative is a fairy tale but it’s one that has infected much of Canada’s public discourse during Justin Trudeau’s time as Prime Minister, at least partly because he so enthusiastically embraced it and then led the country into a permanent state of mourning, or at least regret, for all that has happened over the past four hundred years.

This isn’t to say native peoples in Canada haven’t been treated badly and should be supported as they work to become fully successful members of the Canadian family. But tearing down everyone else’s historical narrative and imposing intergenerational guilt doesn’t help and has done great harm to the pride and reputation of this country. And that’s on Justin Trudeau.

And aside from undermining the core essence of what it means to be a Canadian, he and his government have failed on so many other files. Whether it’s immigration, where their blind commitment to bringing new residents to Canada regardless of the country’s ability to absorb and integrate them has made a majority of Canadians hostile to further immigration; or Canada’s role in the world, where we have been reduced to, at best, an irrelevance and, at worst, a laughing stock; or defence, where, despite dramatically rising threats around the world, they have drastically underfunded the military and, only in response to great pressure from our NATO allies, have made half hearted and probably insincere commitments to increase military spending to the minimum NATO target by 2033; and to the government’s finances, where debt and deficit targets have been blown past over and over again, they apparently believing that deficits and debt don’t matter.

Under Justin Trudeau Canada has ceased to be a serious country. Instead we claim the moral high ground and hector the rest of world over their shortcomings. No wonder Donald Trump sees us ripe for the picking.

So, no question, it’s time for a change, not some slight cosmetic makeover, but a fundamental change that returns Canada to the country our ancestors built and defended.

But there’s a problem: Pierre Poilievre, the Leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition and currently, if polls are correct, the Prime Minister in waiting. Canadians have now had a few years to get to know Pierre Poilievre and clearly many like what they see. But I suspect that is a minority with the rest turned off by his demeanour and public persona. I know I am. Of course, this is the public Pierre Poilievre and he may be charming, engaging, friendly, generous and even likeable in private but that sure isn’t the image he’s worked so hard to show to the Canadian people.

And what does he really stand for? Aside from glib catch phrases, usually on par with the discourse of a schoolyard bully, there is little if anything to go on. Get rid of the carbon tax he says (or more precisely, “axe the tax”…cute I suppose). Okay but what then? How will Canada respond to climate change? Get rid of the bureaucratic roadblocks to housing and resource development. Okay, but how? Many of said roadblocks are the result of decisions by municipal and provincial governments and, particularly when it comes to resource development, the courts often backing their decisions by The Charter of Rights and Freedom. How, exactly, is he going to undo/circumvent those roadblocks? Get rid of DEI. Well, in it’s more extreme forms, I agree, but what exactly does that mean coming from a federal government?

Of course Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives can answer many of these questions in an election campaign where, one would hope, they will lay out detailed policy proposals. He might even present us with a complete personality transplant but I somehow doubt it. I suspect what we see is what we get and any hope his ascending to the Prime Minister’s role is going to somehow make him more “Prime Ministerial” is going to be disappointed.

So, as Canadians, we find ourselves in a bit of pickle. On the one hand, we have a Prime Minister who has demonstrated his unfitness for the job and, on the other, a Leader of the Opposition who defines his brand with nasty one liners and little, if any, concrete policy. And, despite all the polls to the contrary, that might, just might, create an opening for a new Liberal Leader. I know it’s a long shot and the best that can probably be achieved is elevating the Liberal brand to the point it can form a strong opposition although, given the vagueries of Canadian politics, keeping the Conservaties short of a majority is not out of the question.

To have any hope of a Liberal rebirth the party must choose a leader who can put some significant real estate between him/herself and the current government. That would seem to disqualify most, if not all, of the potential candidates who are members of it, particularly those who are cabinet ministers. Currently, the only two “outsiders” being mooted are the former Governor of the Banks of Canada and England, Mark Carney, and the former Premier of B.C., Christy Clark. I suspect the latter is more of a long shot than the former although she would certainly represent the most dramatic departure from the status quo.

And then there’s the wild card: Donald Trump and his persistent trolling of Canada as potentially the “fifty first state”. No one knows how serious he his about this. In fact, I suspect he doesn’t either but, given his outlook on the world, not to mention his personality, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he does levy massive tariffs on Canada and, at that point, all bets are off for both the Liberal leadership race and the next election. It won’t be long before the single most important consideration by far will be who is best able to lead this country through what is likely to be an extended period of conflict with the United States. In that case a name closely connected to the current government, Chrystia Freeland, will come to the fore, helped by Trump’s stated dislike for her and her role in the previous renegotiation of NAFTA.

We live in interesting times.

Just sayin.

GH

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Ignore him. Just ignore him.

Americans elected Donald Trump as their forty seventh President. Although he will take office on Janurary 20th, he is already asserting himself around the world and, it seems, particularly in Canada. Why he has such a facination with Canada is anyone’s guess, but he does, now trolling Canada’s leadership and its people with the claim it should be the fifty first state of the United States.

This comes as a shock to Canadians who have, for over two hundred years, viewed themselves as a friend and ally of the United States, and whose “longest undefended border” with the U.S. has been a point of pride. And this doesn’t even reference the many Canadians, myself included, who have American families. Canadians fought and died side by side with Americans in two World Wars, the Korean War and, after the attacks of 911, in Afghanistan. We have provided safe shelter for our American neighbours, whether in Tehran during the hostage crisis, or in Newfoundland and elsewhere in Canada after the attacks of 911. Our economies are so intertwined that attempting to separate them will result in monumental disruptions on both sides of the border. And yet here we are, with an American President elect who values none of that and seems to take special pleasure in insulting Americans’ northern neighbour.

I could waste a lot of time trying to analyze Donald Trump and his motivation but it would be just that: a waste of time. It is what it is and, from a Canadian’s perspective, the most important thing is to acknowledge that the relationship has changed, perhaps forever, and look to support and defend our country.

When adolescents troll other people they are looking for a response, the more dramatic and excited the better. And that is what is happening here. Donald Trump and his tech boy toy, Elon Musk, are having “fun” trolling Canada and watching the chaos those trolls are causing. And that’s where my advice comes in: ignore them, don’t react to them, in fact for Canadian media, stop even giving them significant coverage. I haven’t any idea whether this is some kind of carefully calibrated and thought out first salvo in a renegotiation of the USMCA (the latest trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico) or whether it’s just a bunch of immature wannabe frat boys getting their jollies, but I suspect it’s more the latter than the former.

Whatever it is, Canada must develop a carefully thought out and, if necessary, calibrated response to whatever eventualities the new American government is going to throw at it. And it must do that quietly. Thus far, we’ve seen our political leaders doing the opposite, whether it’s Prime Minister Trudeau frantically phoning Donald Trump and then rushing down to Mar-A-Lago for a hasty dinner where he and Canada were made the butt of jokes; or the various Premiers rushing to microphones to threaten, cajole, beg or publicly discuss strategy. And I guarantee you the trolls are laughing. So folks, cut it out and shut up. There’s work to be done.

Americans are telling Canadians how little they value the relationship. Well, so be it. I suspect the day will come when America regrets behaving this way but, at least for a generation, things have changed and Canada must define a new role for itself in the world, a role that increasingly separates it from America and focuses exclusively on what is in the best interest of Canada and Canadians even if that goes against America’s interests. Personally, I say this with great regret as I have held America in such high regard for so many years but it is what it is. Americans, including members of my own family, have voted for this President and his behaviour.

Message received.

Just sayin,

GH

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Leave Justin. For God’s Sake Leave

Justin Trudeau just entered his tenth year as Prime Minister of Canada. If the polls are correct, it will be his last with an election required no later than October, 2025. His time in office began with “sunny ways” after the dour eleven years of the Stephen Harper Conservatives and end with Canada weaker, less unified, ridiculed on the international stage and rapidly abandoning those ideas and beliefs that were its successful foundation for the past nearly one hundred and sixty years. And make no mistake, Canada’s current position is a direct result of Justin Trudeau’s governance. What began as “sunny ways” has devolved into an endless parade of self indulgent photo ops, apologies and mind numbing platitudes out of the Prime Minister’s mouth. Canada deserves better. In fact, Canada needs better if it is to survive in an increasingly dangerous world.

The first time I really noticed Justin Trudeau was at his father’s funeral where he delivered the eulogy. Although the chattering classes were quick to sing the praises of his speech and behaviour, already grooming him to ascend to the pinnacle of Canadian political power, I was not. What I witnessed was a juvenile, self indulgent performance by someone who loved the spotlight and who was far more interested in the world’s perception of him than of his father. Unkind you say? Well, yes, I suppose it is, but it was a warning very few took seriously. And, full disclosure here, when he first ran as leader of the Liberal Party against the incumbent Conservatives, I voted for him although, in fairness, it was more a vote for change and against the tired government than for him. I have not made that mistake since.

Now, in a desperate attempt to hold on to power, he is attempting to buy Canadians’ support with our own money. Most Canadians will receive a $250 cheque early in the New Year and, for added measure the federal government is suspending the GST and HST for two months, starting on December 14th. Aside from the predictable outrage from some provinces who will have to absorb part of that loss of tax revenue, it also flies in the face of good economic policy, almost certainly slowing the reduction in interest rates by the Central Bank and, as a result, long after the one time payment and the tax “holiday” are history, Canadians with any kind of debt, be it mortgages, credit cards, lines of credit etc., will be paying for it with higher payments. And, yes, I do know some Conservative Premiers have done the same thing but that doesn’t make it right. It’s just the latest in gimmicky promises, highly targeted benefits or feel good ideas that Justin Trudeau so enjoys announcing, often, as was the case this time, with his tiny enabler, Chrystia Freeland, the Finance Minister, at his side.

Canada has been degraded on so many fronts over the Justin Trudeau decade it’s hard to know where to begin so let me start with the potentially catastrophic erosion of any sense of what it means to be a Canadian.

Canada represented one of the great compromises between two of the major European empires, the French and the British. Defying all odds, the French and the English found a way to live together and prosper, both drawing on the traditions of Western Liberalism. In time, immigrants from other nations joined, creating the multi cultural mosaic we now know as Canada. The idea of a multi cultural Canada really came into its own under Justin Trudeau’s father, Pierre Trudeau, in the late sixties and seventies and, for a time, it seemed like an idea whose time had come. I used to enjoy telling non Canadian friends that Canada was like the Bumblebee, that from a strictly aeronautical point of view, couldn’t fly and yet it flew very well.

It was undoubtedly arrogant of Canadians to believe all new immigrants, while maintaining some of their cultural background, would assimilate into the dominant Canadian family and adopt its core values that, from our perspective, were superior to all others. After all, as far as we were concerned, those values were the bedrock upon which Canada’s peaceful and prosperous existence was built. It never occurred to us new immigrants might not want to shed their previous identities, beliefs and values.

With the benefit of hindsight there is a kind of poetic justice to Pierre Trudeau’s son leading us into what now seems the inevitable outcome of our faulty reasoning to a “post national country”, one that has no unifying myths and histories, and that rushes to eschew anything that might “trigger” anxiety or concern amongst any of our diverse members no matter how important it is to another, or particularly the largest, group amongst us. And it’s hard to see how a country with no past has a future.

As if to accelerate this loss of any real shared identity, Justin Trudeau has seized upon the colonist narrative when it comes to Canada’s treatment of its native citizens, using it to illustrate his compassion, his wokeness, his view all non native Canadians, presumably including him, are sinners in need of endless absolution. Perhaps the best example of this was his response to the discovery of anomalies in the soil around a former Residential School in Kamloops, a discovery that was quickly equated with mass graves and gruesome images of the schools as killing factories right up there with the death camps of the Nazis. Did Trudeau ask for any verification of the worst case scenario? Did he appoint some kind of inquiry to determine the truth? No, he did not. He bought into the myth of genocide wholeheardedly, ordering Canadian flags lowered to half mast where they remained for over half a year during which, by the way, not a single body was recovered or verified from the site. And suddenly Canada, hithertofore the world’s boy scout, was labelled a nation of murderers and racists. Our enemies couldn’t have been happier. After six months, with no explanation, the flags were quietly raised to full mast, presumably hoping no one would notice.

Not surprisingly, this attitude and approach led to the burning of churches across Canada, the tearing down of statues honouring Canada’s founders, the push to erase the names of men and women who contributed mightily to the Canada we enjoy today and, most troubling, the move by some parliamentarians to criminalize speech that even questions the most extreme of the claims about Residential Schools and Canada’s history with native peoples. It also led to the use of the term “the so called country of Canada” by those who want to see this successful nation fail.

The Canada I grew up in had a good international reputation. It had punched well above its weight in two world wars and Korea. It had been a founding member of NATO and the United Nations. It practically invented the idea of peacekeepers and strove to be an intermediary between the former colonial powers and their colonies, perhaps best illustrated by its role under Prime Minister Brian Mulroney confronting Apartheid in South Africa. Although closely allied with the United States, it refused to participate in the Vietnam war or the second invasion of Iraq. Wearing a maple leaf pin when travelling abroad usually resulted in good and friendly treatment by people who liked and respected Canada but, after ten years of Justin Trudeau’s foreign policy, not so much. In fact, it’s probably fair to say Canada has become an irrelevant laughing stock to much of the rest of the world. How did this happen? Well, it was an accumulation of small but symbolic acts, all against the drumbeat of us hectoring the world. We announced we had a “feminist foreign policy”, whatever that meant. We were quick to judge and condemn our historic allies and friends when they came under attack. We equivocated and hid when difficult foreign policy choices confronted us. And our actions seldom, if ever, matched our words. All this while our capacity to even enforce our own sovereignty was constantly degraded as our military became less and less well funded and supported.

In fairness, the degradation of Canada’s military predated Justin Trudeau by at least three administrations, both Liberal and Conservative, but the willful blindness to the threats that opened Canada up to in a newly dangerous and fractured world is astonishing. Canada is quite rightly considered a freeloader in NATO despite being one of the wealthiest nations in the world. And how does the Trudeau government respond? Not with solid and real commitments to rebuild our military, to meet the challenges posed by Russia and China in the Arctic, to effectively stand with our allies in the conflict in Ukraine. Not at all. Just some flimsy commitment to meet a 2% military expenditure target by 2032.

From its inception Canada has had the advantage of being protected by the two great super powers of their times, Great Britain and then the United States. And, in case you haven’t noticed, the United States is tired of carrying that burden. After all, why should American taxpayers pay for the defence of Canada while we instead channel monies to feel good political programs or boutique benefits that advantage whatever political constituency the governing party is seeking favour from? So Canada, wake up while there’s still time because it is running out.

It is past time for Justin Trudeau to go. By the looks of it he’s going to hang on to the bitter end, taking the Liberal Party down with him. In the end, he will disappear like a cloud of vapour, leaving unpleasant memories of a weakened and divided nation.

Just sayin

GH

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Fasten Your Seatbelts. It’s Going to be a Bumpy Four Years

One of the comments I received in response to my last blog where I opined on the risk to Canada of a new Trump Presidency described me as “a paranoid imbecile”. Imbecile maybe. But paranoid?

Two days ago private citizen Donald Trump sent out a post on his ‘”Truth Social” social media platform in which he said he would impose 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico until they take steps that stem the flow of fentanyl and illegal entrants to the United States. And he said he would do this on the first day of his new administration, January 20, 2025. Never one to be bothered by facts, Trump seemed to believe there was a huge problem with drugs and illegal immigrants coming from Canada. Or did he?

In an earlier conversation, Donald Trump laughed and suggested it was going to be fun dealing with Canada in his new administration. That was the same conversation where he said he loved tariffs as somehow the answer to all the problems that are plaguing America. Clearly he has a thing about Canada and it’s not good. None of us really knows why although the gratutitous shots Prime Minister Trudeau has taken at him over the years, particularly since his 2020 defeat, have not helped. That, combined with the seeming consensus amongst his Cabinet nominees and closest advisors that Canada is some kind of socialist threat where the woke policies they hate and reject are firmly in place, undoubtedly contribute to his views as he assembles what is likely to be the American government most hostile to its northern neighbour in at least a century. And that is something we have little control over. What we can control is our response. Having spent nearly half a century negotiating contracts, most of them asymetrical, i.e. with one party more powerful than the other, and usually representing the weaker of the parties, I certainly have some thoughts on how Canada should be responding.

Even before the explicit threat, some of our politicians were auditioning for the role of supplicant in chief to the golden throne of King Donald. Premier Doug Ford’s public musings on throwing Mexico under the bus and Premier Danielle Smith’s initiatives to cut some kind of a side deal on oil exports surely opened the door to the kick we received a week or so later. And once it arrived Chicken Littles appeared everywhere. First, we have Premier Ford fulminating on how insulting it is to be grouped in with Mexico. Aside from the implicit racism in that statement, it is also profoundly stupid if we want to develop a coherent and effective strategy to deal with the bully about to be reinstated in the White House. Not to be outdone, Premier Smith stated how difficult it would be for Alberta to be part of a united Canadian front given the presence of Prime Minister Trudeau. Also worthy of mention is Saskatchewan’s Premier Moe who, just in case we forgot, wanted the world to know he agreed with Alberta and, what’s more, agreed with Donald Trump that there was a huge problem with illegal immigration and fentanyl imports across the northern border despite all evidence to the contrary. By comparison, the federal government was mostly restrained, but not completely, with the Prime Minister immediately initiating a panicked phone call with Donald Trump and expressing gratitude he took the call, and then saying Canada would “prefer” a settlement that included Mexico which doesn’t exlude the possibility of him joining the “throw Mexico under the bus” mob at some point down the road.

All this is music to the ears of Trump and his advisers. We could practically hear the laughing and high fives at Mara Lago all the way up in Vancouver. The bully got the response he wanted and I guarantee he will now return to that playbook over and over again. He wants Canada to abandon supply management of dairy products, something I agree with by the way, so he threatens massive tariffs on the Canadian economy if we don’t. He wants Canada to end the digital service tax so, again, he threatens massive tariffs. He wants Canada to massively increase spending on defence so, again, the threat of massive tariffs. The list goes on and on and only includes the issues we are already aware of. What if, for example, America decides to engage in yet another unjust war somewhere and wants Canada’s support. Well, you know the drill.

So, what should Canada do? Well, for starters, shut up. There’s no need to respond to every provocation from Donald Trump except to say we are aware of it and we are working with our partners to ensure a careful and effective Canadian response. And, by the way, those partners must include Mexico. Canada imports approximately $485 billion of goods from the United States annually. Mexico imports approximately $455 billion. Canada is America’s second biggest market and Mexico isn’t far behind. Except for China, no other nations even come close. Between Canada and Mexico, nearly a trillion dollars of U.S. goods flow into those two countries. So, that’s a starting point. Some perspective.

No one would win an all out trade war and it’s likely Canada and Mexico would suffer more than the United States, but all would feel considerable pain. So, how do we calibrate just the right amount of push back while, simultaneously, showing the Trump administration this is not a path they want to go down? Well, for starters we don’t begin by offering terms of “surrender” before we even find an appropriate negotiating forum. And that is a problem right now. Donald Trump is not the President of the United States, Joe Biden is and will continue until January 20th so deciding how to engage with Trump is complicated but not impossible. In fact, in some ways, that’s the least of the problems.

In anticipation of the negotiations wherever and whenever they occur, Canada must assess what the Trump administration really needs and also what Canada’s core objectives in the negotiations are. We must also determine where Donald Trump is vulnerable and over what time, remembering there are mid term elections in the United States less than two years after he takes office. And, most important, Canada needs to game out any number of strategies and outcomes from the best to the worst and then plan its response to each. Oh, and never forget, the all out war approach always favours the more powerful party.

In parallel with this strategizing, we should reach out to allies, starting with Mexico with whom we need very close coordination, and including American business leaders, states potentially most damaged by the tariffs or by countervailing duties from Canada and Mexico, and friendly voices within Trump’s orbit.

And in the meantime, as the clock is ticking down to January 20, we must exude calm and confidence. Thanks to the initial reactions from some Canadian political leaders, we are already on our back foot and that’s unfortunate but not fatal, at least not yet. I don’t underestimate the difficulty of getting the Canadian choir to sing from the same songbook but, if Canadians generally support this approach, most will fall in line and the rest will just have to be marginalized.

And so I end with the British motto from the Second World War: “Keep calm and carry on” while the hard work is occuring out of public view.

Just sayin

GH

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America: Notes from the Front

While southern California is hardly the front line in the political wars roiling America, it’s still interesting to see how people there are reacting to Donald Trump’s victory. In a nutshell: not well. I assumed, incorrectly, people wouldn’t want to talk about it but, thus far, there’s little else they want to talk about, which makes a restful, sun filled vacation difficult.

Some say they want to move to Canada but then I point out Canada is a sovereign nation and you can’t just arrive and announce you’re staying. Well, you could, but it wouldn’t be very effective. Others have (jokingly I presume) asked if I would marry them, presumably believing that would fast track their becoming a Canadian citizen (I’m holding out for romance).

Most Americans I talked to have a complete lack of understanding how this could have happened. Theories are offered about the extent to which Trump supporters are ignorant of who and what he is and represents; or the belief many voted for him believing his campaign bark was much worse than anything he would do as President and, finally and almost excruciatingly, the acceptance that millions of his supporters not only knew all about him and his plans, but fully supported him and them.

There is also a kind of bipolar response to what might be coming. On the one hand, people want desperately to believe little will really change, that somehow the vaunted checks and balances will contain his wilder excesses, this despite much evidence that isn’t so, and, on the other, a kind of terror at the five alarm fire that has already begun to rage across their political landscape.

And for those clinging to the “all will be okay” mantra, that thread becomes thinner and thinner with each new announcement in the gong show of Cabinet Secretary nominees. Each one seems to top the other in mind numbingly awfulness, let alone incompetence. Matt Gaetz, Kristi Noem, Telsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth and last, but certainly not least, Robert Kennedy Jr. You know you’ve crossed into the twilight zone when Kristi Noem and Pete Hegseth seem almost normal compared to the others but really… For those of you who may have forgotten, Kristi Noem is probably most famous for boasting about shooting Cricket, her dog, because she really didn’t like him, and Pete Hegseth has been accused of sexual assault and apparently paid some amount of money to settle the case.

The other three seem pretty well tied in a race for the worst. Robert Kennedy is a vaccine denier who would be put in charge of public health. Telsi Gabbard is a conspiracy theorist who, amongst other things, likes murderous middle eastern dictators and who would be in charge of national security and Matt Gaetz…well, what to say about Matt Gaetz…actually words fail.

The next step in this carnival is the senate confirmation process or, if Trump gets his way, the absence of one as the Republican Senate waives its constitutional duty to advise and consent and, instead allows the nominations to go ahead unchallenged. And after years of Republican absolute obeisance to Trump and MAGA, don’t be surprised if even so-called traditionalist Republican senators bend their knee to the new President’s every whim.

Although I like America and have many American friends, as well as family, I confess to being glad to getting back to Canada last night. The biggest news here today is a hail storm that hit part of Vancouver last night. On the other hand, Canada taking an ostrich approach to what is happening south of us would be very unwise. There’s little doubt the new administration will adopt policies harmful to Canada and we will have to adjust but, wait, there’s worse: I don’t think it’s alarmist to also be worried about Canada’s sovereignty. Why do I feel like The Netherlands in 1933?

Just sayin

GH

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