Although Canada’s election is still two weeks away I will be out of the country for the duration and thought I would offer some final thoughts on it before I leave. I recognize things could change dramatically between now and September 20 but, in as much as I’ve cast my ballot by mail today, it’s all over for me.
In my initial blog on the election I criticized the Liberal government for calling a completely unnecessary election in the middle of the fourth wave of the pandemic. Nothing since has changed my view on that although as a wedge issue vaccine passports certainly work in the Liberal’s favour, as do the anti vaccine mobs following Prime Minister Trudeau in his campaign, shouting abuse and demanding the right to live free and die. If their objective is to get him re-elected they are doing a good job. Their claim they have an absolute right to not get vaccinated is qualified, in my view, by the fact they are driving this fourth wave, putting vaccinated Canadians at risk and putting strain on the healthcare system that we all pay for. So, when it comes to vaccine passports, I say “bring them on”.
But when it comes to the overall management of the pandemic I’m not persuaded the Conservatives would do any worse than the Liberals. Overall I think the Liberals get a passing grade, although not outstanding and with some pretty obvious failures, but there is little in the Conservative position that concerns me, with the possible exception of vaccine passports, and as provinces with Conservative governments move to implement some form of passport (hello Ontario), it’s not unreasonable to assume a new Conservative government would not be far behind.
Aside from management of the pandemic, there are three issues that ultimately determined how I voted: climate change, management of government finances and relations with The People’s Republic of China. Others like Medical Assistance in Dying and gun control do concern me but aren’t of sufficient weight to move the dial for me.
Policies, or the lack thereof, to respond to climate change were major determinants in my voting choices in the last two federal elections. They are a big reason I voted Liberal in both of those elections although those votes were as much against the then Conservative leaders as for the Liberals. I have no doubt the Liberals will do a better job positioning Canada to fight climate change in the years ahead but I also acknowledge the Conservatives under Erin O’Toole have finally accepted the need to tax carbon emissions and have proposed a plan to do so. That O’Toole was willing to do this against the strong wishes of his base in Alberta and Saskatchewan speaks well for him but it also acknowledges the political reality on the ground elsewhere in the country.
I’m no expert on government actions to combat climate change so it’s difficult to evaluate the two plans although it’s obvious the Conservative plan aims for smaller reductions in emissions than does the Liberal one. But I don’t think that’s the end of the matter. Wthout the active cooperation of Alberta and, to a lesser extent, Saskatchewan, any plan to reduce carbon emissions is going to face a difficult if not impossible road forward. So while the Conservative plan is less ambitious than the Liberal one, it may also have a greater chance of succeeding, not just because the target is lower but because it would be implemented by a government seen as less hostile to those two prairie provinces and their oil industries. That said, I am puzzled by Erin O’Toole’s subsequent announcement he would try to restart the Northern Gateway pipeline, something that seems to undermine his environmental creds, not to mention being very unpopular in the Lower Mainland of B.C. and Vancouver Island, both vote rich areas where the Conservatives need to make gains if they are to win. Also, it isn’t lost on us in B.C. that, while he is prepared to support the Northern Gateway pipeline, he remains opposed to the Energy East pipeline through Quebec which, arguably, is a better option at least from the standpoint of the Canadian economy.
When it comes to managing government finances and getting Canada back living within its means, there should be no contest between the parties. The Liberals long ago eschewed the careful fiscal management of Paul Martin in favour of deficit financing, seemingly forever. And lest people say that’s only because of the pandemic, let’s remember the Liberals were running deficits long before the pandemic struck, deficits that far exceeded those they had campaigned on. At this point no Liberal politician seems willing to acknowledge that could be a problem down the road. Instead, with the zeal of evangelists, they tell us no amount of deficit spending is too much to “build back better”, to radically transform the role of government in Canadian society by, amongst other things, committing to a trillion dollar stimulus despite evidence the Canadian economy is coming back well from the pandemic induced recession. Believers in big government are happy as the sky is apparently now the limit when it comes to what government can provide. But there will come a time when interest rates increase and when the burden of debt weighs increasingly heavily upon Canadians. This is not going to end well.
Even the Conservatives are treading carefully on this issue which may make political sense but provides only faint hope for those who are concerned about government finances. They say they will balance the budget within ten years and without cuts. In other words, they plan to grow the economy out of deficits without Canadians feeling the least bit of pain from cuts in spending or increased taxes, this despite economists noting that plan relies on an annual growth rate that has only been achieved once over the past decade. I do trust the Conservatives more on this issue than the Liberals, but only just.
Those of you who read my blogs know I am concerned about the challenges posed to the West by the rise of communist China. In fact, I believe it represents an existential challenge that needs to be responded to by Western powers with a great deal of skill and realism.
In the past several years China has shed its benign mantle as it asserts its military and economic power across the globe. The most jarring case for Canada is the detention of the two Michaels, held as hostages by Beijing for a thousand days and counting. Any illusions the West had about a moderating China as it modernized and became more affluent have proven disastrously wrong. It’s not just Canada that has miscalculated on this file but, at least with Canada, the way forward is complicated by PRC tentacles in so many areas of Canadian public and private life. Much of that has occurred under the watch of successive Liberal governments and it’s clear conflicts of interest on this issue exist between many of the Liberal Party’s supporters and representatives, conflicts that bedevil the pursuit of a clear sighted, Canada centric policy towards China.
As long as the two Michaels are imprisoned in China few if any Canadian politicians are going to support a more pro China Canadian foreign policy but it’s when the current crisis ends that I worry about. I suspect a Liberal government will want to return to “business as usual” with China as soon as possible and I don’t think that is in Canada’s long term strategic interest. In fact, quite the opposite.
Canada must join with its democratic allies to forge a realistic and effective policy for relations with China. That policy must recognize China for what it is, not what we would like it to be or hope it will become. It must ensure we have the military capability to defend against Chinese aggression and that we lessen our economic dependence on China even if, in the short term, that means slower economic growth than would otherwise occur. And, on this file, I believe the Conservatives will do a better job.
In my previous blog on the election I cited the “Meanness Factor” as one reason I find it difficult to support the Conservatives. What I didn’t state at the time was that Meanness Factor has a Liberal counterpart that I describe as “The Sanctimony Factor”, the assumption the Liberal world view is without question the right and proper one, and those who don’t share it are to be pitied and looked down upon. This, I believe, is one reason the Liberal government keeps getting itself into scandals, most not serious enough to bring down a government but they all illustrate a sense of rectitude, of entitlement, of being allowed because the longer term objectives are just so right. I mean, how many times does Justin Trudeau have to get caught breaching ethical boundaries before he finally gets it? Truth is, I don’t think he ever will.
For over thirty years Canadians have been faced with a choice between the “Perpetual Governing Party”, the Liberals, and a Conservative Party that had become the hostage of social conservatives with roots in Alberta and Saskatchewan. As a result, many of us held our nose and voted Liberal. But this election offers another opportunity and, while it may be a long shot, it’s worth considering. Despite pandering to the conservative/populist wing of his party to get elected Leader, Erin O’Toole has not only led from the centre but has steadily forced his party to follow, whether on issues like climate change, taxation policy, LGBT issues, gun control and even abortion. And that’s not an inconsiderable achievement. I have no doubt that if he fails to do well in the election the knives will be out and he will be gone in a flash, leaving the Conservative Party an unpalatable alternative to the Liberals for most Canadians. On the other hand, if he succeeds (however that is measured), there is a real chance he can move the Conservatives back towards their Tory roots, something that would be enormously good for the health of the Canadian body politic.
Sometimes in an election there is a moment that changes everything. Sometimes it changes the entire trajectory of the campaign, or sometimes it does nothing more than determine my vote. Such a moment occurred two weeks ago when the Liberals posted a doctored video of comments Erin O’Toole made on healthcare on social media, and then followed up with an embarrassing show of faux outrage that they had to know had no basis in fact. The issue concerned the role of private providers in the Canadian healthcare system. Erin O’Toole said he supported a role for those providers within the single payor, univeral access system. That latter is what the Liberals cut out. I then witnessed Justin Trudeau in full rhetorical flourish condemning O”Toole for this outrage particularly “In the middle of a pandemic no less”. The next day I saw Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland attempting the same thing at a rally in Toronto. And I was disgusted. Not just because of the duplicity but because of the underlying belief we, the voters, were so stupid as to fall for it.
As many of you know, I spent a large part of my career working in and around healthcare in B.C. and I am often discouraged by the antics of politicians bent on scoring political points at cost of finding any way forward to a sustainable and effective public healthcare system, on the left always heading for the “third rail” of Americanization/privatization. Private providers have been selling services to the Canadian medicare system since its inception, whether doctors providing their services to patients in private clinics and then billing the system or, more recently, governments of all political stripes including the NDP contracting with private providers for diagnostic, surgical and many other services.
And yet, seeking a short term political gain, Justin Trudeau couldn’t resist playing the card no matter the cost to the system. It was the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back for me. Of course it wasn’t that single event. But it was just so typical of his behaviour and that of his government, and I am tired, really tired, of it. I’m tired of the faux empathy, the glib phrases (“because it’s 2015”), the never ending scandals, the willingness to dive into the political gutter at the drop of a hat all the while maintaining their virtue, the strutting across the world stage that is too often wince inducing, and the promises to do things differently when nothing really changes.
But can I trust the Conservatives? That’s the question friends and relatives put to me. I’m never quite sure what lies behind the question although I suspect there’s some inchoate dark fear the Conservatives if they win will become sort of Taliban lite, sweeping away hard fought gains for women, gays and lesbians, pot smokers and those in need of medical assistance in dying. None of which will happen. Even if you doubt Erin O’Toole’s sincerity, and I don’t, Canada’s constiitutional order would protect against those types of excesses. Access to abortion, marriage equality and medical assistance in dying all came about because their previous prohibitions were found to violate Canada’s constitution. Then there’s the political calculus. If the Conservatives win under O’Toole they will know they have to cling to the centre if they are going to be anything other than a one shot wonder. So, yes I can trust them at least as much as I can trust the Liberals who, by the way, have broken many previous campaign promises.
And so, for the first time since Kim Campbell was Prime Minister (and also my MP), I voted Conservative.
Just sayin
G.
A note to my NDP friends: Of course I know there is one other major political party in Canada, the NDP, but I just don’t think it has a snow ball’s hope in hell of winning. However, I am impressed with Jagmeet Singh, both as a politician and as a person, and I hope he is able to pick up some additional seats although I have no idea where they would come from.
Please share this blog. If you would like to be notified each time I post a blog click on the “follow” button that will appear on the lower right hand side of your screen when you open the blog.