Afghanistan Redux

Although he’s out of fashion these days, I can’t help but recall the words from Rudyard Kipling’s “Recessional” written for the Jubilee of Queen Victoria as I watch the messy end to the twenty year involvement by the West in Afghanistan’s civil war. The lines that most resonate with me are “The captains and the kings depart” to the echo of “Lest we forget. Lest we forget.”

America, accompanied by its NATO allies invaded Afghanistan shortly after the attacks of 911 and it had been determined the architects of those attacks had safe haven in Afghanistan. Prior to the invasion the Americans gave the then Taliban government the option of expelling Al Quaeda and avoiding an invasion. The Taliban refused and then faced the combined fury of the Americans and its NATO allies including Canada. America and its allies prevailed after only a few weeks of conflict but failed to capture key figures in Al Quaeda’s or the Taliban’s leadership as they melted away into the northern territories of Pakistan. And so began twenty years of Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.

I believe the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 was justified and, moreover, unavoidable after the 911 attacks. I also believe it was appropriate for NATO allies like Canada to stand with America in that war. I see people saying now the war should never have been started but they seem to have forgotten the trauma of 911 and the very simple fact it was the first shot in the war and it was fired from Afghanistan.

That said, what followed was neither necessary nor wise and spectacularly ignored the lessons of history. It’s not for naught Afghanistan is described as the “Graveyard of Empires”. The last foreign invader who had any sustained success there was Alexander the Great in approximately 330 BC. At the time it was part of the Persian empire that he was at war with. Although he didn’t settle there, he did leave many of his men and their followers who intermingled with the native population and whose descendants form part of the Afghani population to this day. In the intervening twenty four hundred years many foreigners have tried to subdue Afghanistan, including the British Empire and the Soviet Union, and all have failed.

I don’t think of Afghanistan as a country like all others. In fact, it fails the test of nationhood on many fronts. It is a vast territory spanning central and southern Asia and is populated by an astonishing number of separate tribes and peoples, most with their own territory, history, traditions and religions. The largest group are the Pashtuns, who also comprise approximately twenty five percent of the Pakistani population where they are mostly located in the northern tribal areas and the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Balochistan. They are the backbone of the Taliban. But there are also other significant ethnic groups including Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbek, Aimaks, Turkmens, Balochs and others. What has usually united these groups throughout history is a shared antipathy to outsiders trying to occupy their lands. All are Muslims but bitterly divided by sect. The territory of Afghanistan has had the unfortunate fate of crossing the major trade routes between east and west from Asia to Europe, tempting other nations to seek to control the territory. So, warfare has been a way of life for a very long time.

As we watch the sad spectacle of people trying to escape the Taliban many are seeking to assign blame and there is a fair bit to go around, but very little should rest on Joe Biden’s shoulders. The historical record clearly shows he has been consistent in seeking to get America out of a major involvement in Afghanistan, including when he was Vice President and opposed the so called “surges” under the Obama administration. A much greater share of blame should be assigned to George W. Bush and Donald Trump. Having scattered Al Quaeda and overthrown their host government, the Taliban, George Bush and his government set about trying to transform an ethnically and religiously divided country, a country that by most standards hasn’t made it into the twentieth century, into some kind of functioning Jeffersonian democracy. And even if that had been even remotely achievable, he and his government then turned their attention and resources to attack Iraq and overthrow Saddam Hussein and, with breathtaking arrogance, try to install a Jeffersonian democracy in that ancient land. As we witness today’s debacle we should never forget that it was the hard core conservatives in America who were so blinded by hubris they failed to even seriously consult the lessons of history as they drove American foreign policy in the region.

Donald Trump on the other hand made getting out of Afghanistan and Iraq central tenets of his foreign policy, one that was motivated above all else by its effect on his image and reputation. He entered into negotiations with the Taliban that effectively sidelined the government of Afghanistan and made agreements that virtually guaranteed the kind of collapse we are witnessing today. His hypocrisy in criticizing President Biden over this would be breathtaking if it wasn’t so typical of him as he places his own needs above those of his country.

Perhaps the final withdrawal could have been handled better, begun earlier, been more orderly, I just don’t know. Part of me believes the chaos we are witnessing now was inevitable and, by the way, we shouldn’t be shortchanging the remarkable efforts that are being made to evacuate Afghanis by the Western nations including Canada. And as for the criticisms of Canada’s efforts to evacuate Canadians and Afghan’s trapped there, maybe it could have been done earlier or more efficiently but, again, I’m not sure that’s the case. Despite the desperate circumstances, I still want Canada to show reasonable caution in deciding who it admits to this country, particularly from that part of the world.

Also, I am puzzled by the criticism of Canada’s efforts that are usually based on some version of “we owe them”. Let me be very clear, I wholeheartedly support bringing Afghan refugees to Canada, particularly those who are at special risk because of the Taliban’s Bronze age view of society, but I don’t do that because I think we “owe it to them” any more than we owe this opportunity to any other downtrodden, oppressed or desperate people in the world. Canada had no “skin in the game” in Afghanistan and yet it committed enormous resources to help the Afghan people in what proved to be the hopeless task of building a modern, pluralistic society. 156 young Canadian men and women died in that conflict and another 2,071 were injured, some terribly. Canada spent billions of dollars on its military and humanitarian roles and yet, by any standard, there was really nothing in it for Canada except we believed it to be the right thing to do, so when I hear “we owe it to them” I wince because, in the way that phrase is being used, I don’t think it’s correct.

Some are lamenting that the West’s defeat in Afghanistan is a big win for its rivals, particulary China, Russia and Iran. But is it really? All three are immediate geographic neighbours of Afghanistan and one, Russia, paid the same price as the West when it tried to subdue and control the country militarily. In fact, I expect all three will experience problems going forward, whether because their own restive Muslim populations are supported by the Taliban or because, in the case of Iran, Islamic rivals of the government in Tehran will use Afghanistan as a base. And as for Pakistan, well it had better watch its own Taliban very carefully. Even if particular threats to each of the countries don’t emerge immediately, the inevitable disorder and chaos in Afghanistan is going to create headaches for its neighbours right away.

There have been many tragedies in Afghanistan in its long and troubled history, this one only the most recent. The West’s first goal in invading was to prevent terrorists using it as a base from which to launch attacks against Western countries. That danger is still there and must now be met through other, less intrusive measures. To the extent it can it should also presssure the new government in Kabul to repect the rights of its people but, of course, that will have a limited effect.

And in a broader sense, the West must learn yet again that military ventures into other people’s territory almost inevitably ends in tears. Lest we forget.

Just sayin

G.

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