Exhale

At twelve noon today Joe Biden was inaugerated as the 46th President of the United States, ending four years of chaos, corruption and an assault on representative democracy by Donald Trump. Much of the world breathed a collective sigh of relief at that moment as the possibility of resetting global relations so the democracies can speak with a strong collective voice once again came into view. The challenges facing President Biden may well be greater than any facing an incoming President in the nearly two hundred and fifty years since the Republic was founded. I worry that his seventy eight year old shoulders may not be able to bear up under the pressure but anyone who cares about democracy in the world should wish him the best as he tackles these herculean tasks.

Aside from confronting the worst public health crisis in a century with a pandemic killing approximately four thousand Americans a day, he must deal with the economic fallout of that pandemic as America, like most of the developed world, endures a deep recession. That in itself would be more than enough to challenge the most capable leader but it is only the first of the challenges.

As the world witnessed during the summer of unrest following the killing of George Floyd, as well as the assault on the American Capital by a mob of protesters determined to interrupt the peaceful transfer of power, he must also confront the deep and seemingly intractable divisions cutting across all sections of the American population, whether racial, economic, social or geographic.

Perhaps most urgently, he must tackle the very real threat of domestic terrorism so vividly on display at the Capital on January 6th and at the Michigan state capital in Lansing last fall. This is made immeasurably more difficult by the utterly classless behaviour of the defeated Donald Trump as he fuels the fire of mistrust in all American insitutions. Polling showing a majority of Republicans still believing the election was “stolen” and not recognizing the Biden Presidency as legitimate confirm the worst fears of people who care about the survival of the American Republic.

And while all this is going on in America, the world has not stopped turning and will now confront President Biden with international challenges every bit as daunting as those that faced his predecessors in the darkest days of the Cold War. Enabled by the ineptitude of the Donald Trump’s foreign policies, North Korea continues to assemble its arsenal of nuclear weapons and delivery systems capable of threatening not only its immediate neighbours but also North America itself. Iran, freed of the constraints of the Iran Nuclear Agreement, moves inexorably towards a point where it will be able to create nuclear weapons capable of attacking its middle eastern neighbours including Israel. Russia continues to use all the Machiavellian tools of statecraft in the twenty first century to undermine democracy at home and abroad. A resurgent China, with its authoritarian creed and fearful use of technology to control its vast population, moves seemingly inexorably towards displacing America as the predominant world power while, at the same time, using its newfound wealth and military might to bully smaller countries while eschewing the norms of international behaviour. Populist dictators or wannabe dictators crop up around the globe, in some places supplanting democratic regimes, this a direct legacy of Donald Trump’s preference for autocracy over liberal democracies.

Then there’s climate change that threatens the very survival of the human race and that has already resulted in catastrophic events around the world, no more so than in America where out of control wildfires now regularly plague the western coastal states; where hurricanes of unprecedented intensity, frequency and duration now assault the American east coast from Texas to Maine; where massive flooding and droughts plague America’s breadbasket; and where rising sea levels threaten to inundate all or part of some of its most iconic cities. All this made incalculably worse by the ignorance or criminal disregard for science by the Trump administration, setting America and the world back in its efforts to confront this existential threat.

President Biden and his administration will need all the luck, good will and support possible to navigate through this maelstrom of crises.

Far and away the majority of Canadians celebrate the end of the Trump Presidency, one unlike any other we have had to deal with in our over two hundred year relationship. We welcome the return to “normalcy”, to behaviours neighbours, friends and relatives expect of each other and to the opportunity to move forward together. However, we Canadians shouldn’t let our relief at the arrival of the new administration blind us to the fact that the relationship always has had irritants and disagreements and they will not go away. The first example of this appears to be the Keystone XL pipeline and President Biden’s intention to cancel it. Of course that will anger Canadians in the oil patch and we are already hearing demands from Alberta that Ottawa do something, it seems anything, to stop the inevitable. The question I have is “why is anyone surprised?”. President Biden was part of the administration that originally cancelled it and has been clear from the beginning of his campaign for the Presidency that he will cancel it again. My question to those expressing outrage at this news now is what have you been doing in the meantime? What is Plan B?

And you can bet there will be disputes over softwood lumber in the next four years, disputes that we in Canada will consider an affront and entirely without merit. Also, with Senator Chuck Schumer now the Senate Majority Leader, expect new complaints and actions about supply management in Canada’s dairy industry. There will also be battles over “buy America” policies and how they may or may not offend NAFTA or whatever we are calling that treaty now. And many, many more. But the difference this time is we will be dealing with an administration that believes in laws and agreements and that follows accepted norms of international behaviour while also being respectful of other country’s needs. And that is cause for enormous relief.

Canada has had a relatively easy time in the world over the past 150 years. First of all we were part of the British Empire, protected and cossetted by Britain’s military and economic might. And then we rested comfortably next to the world’s sole remaining super power during Pax Americana. For good or bad, the Trump administration has changed that. Like many of our European and Asian allies, we will never quite forget the shock of seeing America turn as it did. And that may be a good thing. Hopefully, we will now take a more self reliant role in the world, including our commitments to defence and strengthening our ties with other democratic nations.

But this does not mean we should turn our back on America. Anything but. America, though flawed and wounded, remains the best possible hope for the triumph of democracy in the world or, at worst, its survival. It is in Canada’s interest to support and help America in any way it can as it grapples with the seemingly overwhelming challenges facing it. We should welcome the opportunity to join a democratic alliance assembled at the call of America to define and chart a place in the world, one that will, amongst other things, clarify and coordinate our response to a resurgent and authoritarian China. We should coordinate our policies and plans to combat climate change. We should enhance our defence capabilities, not just as an ally of America but as an independent first world country in the twenty first century. And where we can we should provide a model of democratic governance and civic responsibility to our friends, family and neighbours to the south.

But first, let’s all just exhale.

just sayin

G

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