It’s been a year since China seized two Canadians as hostages in retaliation for the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou on an extradition warrant from the United States. The two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, have spent the year in harsh prison conditions without access to lawyers and with very limited Canadian consular access. Meng Wanzhou is free on bail as her extradition case is being adjudicated by the Canadian courts. She has a team of Canadian lawyers representing her and is living in one of her Vancouver mansions.
Two days ago China announced their investigation of the two Michaels is complete and the results have been turned over to prosecutors with the expectation they will be charged with some kind of espionage and will be sent to trial. Trials in China have a conviction rate of ninety nine percent.
At the same time, China has banned the import of Canadian canola and, for a time, also banned all Canadian pork and beef products. The meat ban was lifted recently but that is a reflection of shortages of pork in China caused by an outbreak of swine flu in the country, not an indication of any softening of the Chinese position. It has been made clear there will be no movement on the detention of the two Canadian hostages until Ms. Wanzhou is freed.
We have been assured in the past year that the Canadian government is doing everything in its power to secure the release of the two Canadians, including several high level conversations and soliciting support from international allies. This position was repeated yesterday by the newly re-appointed Minister of Justice for Canada, David Lametti. And it isn’t true.
I spent many years negotiating contracts, including what I describe as “asymetical negotiations” where the party opposite was, on paper at least, much more powerful than the group I was representing. I understand the need to proceed with caution and to take all aspects of the relationship into account. But when a negotiation is either not working or, as in the current case, not really happening at all, it is time for a strategic reset. I believe we’re at that point in the current dispute with China.
Part of the problem with the Canadian approach is that it is heavily influenced by business interests who want nothing more than a return to our former relationship with the Peoples Republic of China where Canadian companies can make money in the vast Chinese market. As I’ve said previously, simply returning to the old relationship without learning the lessons of the current conflict would not only be a mistake, it would guarantee similar confrontations in the future. Canada needs a major rethink of the relationship, starting with a clear understanding of the authoritarian and lawless nature of the PRC. I am glad the opposition parties in Parliament out-voted the government yesterday to establish an all party committee to delve into the relationship. In the meantime, however, two Canadians are languishing in a Chinese jail and Canada is being ineffective in its efforts to free them.
It is clear that poking the dragon that is China today has consequences and any actions a mid sized power like Canada takes should be based on a careful calculation of what will be effective and what the blowback will be. However, that does not mean we should never take that poke.
Thus far, China has paid nothing for its rogue behaviour and that must stop. Although I obviously don’t know the complete range of options available to Canada to counterpunch, a number of possibilities have surfaced. They include sending Chinese athletes who are training in Canada home; adopting legislation similar to that now adopted by the United States that threatens consequences for individuals responsible for cracking down on pro-democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong; expelling Chinese consular officials who we believe are committing espionage on Canada and Canadians; closing some Chinese consulates in Canada; limiting Chinese access to Canadian airspace; banning Huawei from participating in the rollout of 5G technology in Canada; and expelling Chinese students studying in Canada. Any of these, coordinated with similar actions by our international allies, will be felt in China.
When I used to teach negotiations one of the principles I emphasized in any confrontation was that you must retain the ability to escalate. That should remain a core factor in determining what we do and when we do it.
Escalating will be neither easy nor pleasant. We know from its past behaviour China will react disproportionately and furiously. I have no doubt the two Michaels will feel that wrath and that other Canadian interests will be affected at least in the short term. But the alternative is for Canada to remain a patsy while its citizens are being abused. That is no alternative at all.
just sayin
G
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